Page 13 - Littleton, CO Comprehensive Plan

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Given this context, this section provides a comparison of several potential scenarios for future population change in
Littleton. The projections build on the latest U.S. Census estimate of 47,734 for 2017 and identify potential population
levels in five-year increments out to 2040. The four projection alternatives displayed in Figure 1, below, reflect:
• If Littleton continued to experience an increase in population at a Steady Growth Rate of 1.9 percent per year as has
occurred most recently in the years from 2010 through 2017. Similar to how interest compounds in a savings account,
this is an “exponential growth” scenario because the numerical change gets larger each year as the same rate of
increase – 1.9 percent in this case – is applied to an expanding total population.
• If Littleton maintained its respective 2010 shares of the total populations in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties (Douglas
County was not included as Littleton is such a tiny share of the Douglas total). The portion of Littleton within Arapahoe
County accounted for 7.3 percent of the countywide population in 2010, and the Jefferson County portion of Littleton
was 7.8 percent of the Jefferson total population. This is known as the Fixed County Step Down scenario.
• If Littleton’s respective 2010 shares of the total populations in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties decreased over time
rather than remain constant as above. This is known as the Trending County Step Down scenario and assumes that,
by 2040, Littleton’s share of the Arapahoe County population would decrease from 7.3 to 6.3 percent. Likewise,
Littleton’s share of the Jefferson County population would drop from 7.8 to 6.5 percent.

• If Littleton continued to experience an increase in population involving Steady Numeric Growth of 8,567 persons per
decade through the current decade and then also in the 2020s and 2030s. In contrast to the exponential growth
scenario above, this is a “linear growth” scenario as the numeric growth remains fixed rather than the growth rate.
The assumption of fixed numeric growth means that the 1.9 percent annual growth rate experienced recently from 2010
through 2017 would drop to 1.6 percent during the 2020s, then to 1.4 percent during the 2030s.
Bottom Line

Littleton should consider a range of potential growth rather than an absolute number given the uncertainty of any small-
area forecast that extends beyond a few years. It is assumed for this Plan that Littleton’s 2040 population will fall
within a forecast range of 51,289 to 74,200 persons, which yields a midpoint of 62,745 residents.
The midpoint of a potential growth range to assume for this Plan would mean nearly 15,000 additional residents over
20 years. This suggests that Littleton could add the equivalent of 31 percent of its 2017 base-year population by 2040.
For perspective, Census 2010 reported an average household size in Littleton of 2.29 persons, meaning that 6,550
additional housing units would be needed to accommodate 15,000 added residents.

An essential caveat is that the scenarios above are projections of what could occur in Littleton over the next several
decades based on recent trends and/or specified assumptions. Because Littleton is largely built out, to what extent the
potential growth can be absorbed – or absorbed at some lesser level or not at all – will depend on the City’s zoning
framework and other municipal policy decisions going forward (e.g., regarding housing strategies, open space
preservation, economic development, etc.). Throughout Envision Littleton, City officials stated their intent to proceed
directly into a comprehensive evaluation and update of Littleton’s zoning and development codes. The outcomes of that
next phase will determine the type and nature of new development that can occur on remaining vacant land, along with
parameters for redevelopment and infill activity in existing developed areas.

Adopted October 15, 2019