Page 190 - Littleton, CO Comprehensive Plan

Fiscal Impact Analysis
The City of Littleton, CO

SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS

In designing the land use scenarios utilized in this FIA, the planning team considered the amount of
developable land remaining within the city limits, current demographic and market trends, and the
goals identified throughout the Comprehensive Planning process, including fiscal sustainability.

Each scenario is described below.

Scenario 1: Trend (Residential Emphasis). This scenario bases its projections primarily on current
demographic and market trends. The city’s population is expected to reach the mid-point of the
growth range projected in the Comprehensive Plan, and the majority of developable land is used for
residential development in order to accommodate that growth. Broadly speaking, Scenario 1
represents a “business-as-usual” approach to development review and the City’s economic
development policy decisions.

Scenario 2: Larger Nonresidential Share. This scenario incorporates more nonresidential
development than Scenario 1. With more vacant land utilized for commercial development, less land
is available for new housing; this scenario therefore generates less population growth than the trend
scenario. Nonresidential development is expected to generally align with the character of the current
built environment. Scenario 2 diverges from historical development trends by attracting more
commercial development. Thus, achieving full build-out under this scenario may require a shift in the
City’s approach towards attracting commercial development.

Scenario 3: Largest Nonresidential Share. Scenario 3 assumes the same level and type of residential
growth as Scenario 2, but it calls for additional commercial development. Achieving this level of
commercial growth requires more densification than Scenario 2, especially through more intensive
mixed-use, master-planned “destination” development and/or some level of transit-oriented
development. Like Scenario 2, achieving these projected levels of development may require changes
to the City’s development-related policies and economic development programs, such as more
targeted market interventions, a more streamlined development review process, or the
implementation of other incentive programs.

The amount of development for each scenario for the projection period is provided below in Figure
1. Broadly speaking, these land use scenarios were designed to test how residential development
compares to nonresidential development in terms of its impact on the City’s fiscal sustainability.

2