Page 19 - Northville Township

TURNING TO A NEW ERA OF forecasting population changes can be challenging,
“INTERNALIZED” GROWTH particularly for the long term, because it is often difficult
to account for all circumstances that may arise. Therefore,
MANAGEMENT it will be important for the Township to monitor
population and economic growth continually to account
As Northville Township’s growth era of recent decades for both short- and longer-term shifts that can influence
winds down, with smaller increments of new population development activity and trends in the community and
and less raw land available to convert to “developed” larger region.
uses, the focus turns instead to fostering high-quality
development on what land remains. Perhaps more ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS
importantly, the Township must carefully scrutinize
proposed infill and redevelopment projects that can Demographers caution that population projections
impact the community’s infrastructure and public become trickier as the geographic area gets smaller,
services, and to ensure they contribute to the Township’s making Township-level population difficult to forecast.
established character. In essence, more of the Township’s This is because local population change is strongly
attention will be on managing what already exists, aiming influenced by less predictable factors such as housing
to maintain the integrity of existing neighborhoods and prices and options, availability of vacant land to develop,
commercial areas while pursuing strategies to improve results from economic development efforts, and trends in
those areas not reflective of the high standard of household sizes and inter-generational living.
development achieved across the Township.
Given this context, the chart in this section provides
Partners a comparison of several potential scenarios for future
population change within the Northville Township limits.
Partners for implementation of plan priorities related to The projections build on the Census 2020 figure of 31,758
Growth Capacity include: for Northville Township and identify potential population
levels in five-year increments out to 2040.
– Wayne County
– Southeast Michigan Council of Governments Projections Based on Varying Quantities and
(SEMCOG) Rates of Growth

– Northville Public Schools A common population projection method is to extend
historical trends to future years. Linear growth forecasts
Related Plans and Studies are “straight line” projections that result in the same

– Michigan Building Code absolute number of new persons being added to the
population in each period. This produces a declining rate
– Water Quality Report/Consumer Confidence Report, of growth over time as the same amount is being added
done by the Department of Public Works (2021) to an ever-expanding base (in the case of Northville
– Water Distribution Study and Master Plan Township, adding 3,261 residents per decade).
Exponential growth projections produce higher numbers
Population Outlook for than linear because the numerical change gets larger in
Northville Township each period while the rate of growth stays constant. This
is similar to the power of compound growth in a savings
account; the interest (i.e., growth) rate may not change,
Population projections are an important component but it is being applied to an ever-expanding balance,
of a long-range planning process. They help determine resulting in larger and larger interest earnings over time.
and quantify the demands that will be placed on public In the case of Northville Township, the Exponential
facilities and services based on the potential pace and Growth scenario results in 1,162 more residents by 2040
scale of the community’s physical growth. Projections than the Linear Growth scenario.
reflect local, regional, national and international trends
and offer a basis to prepare for the future. However,

Approved August 17, 2023 17