Page 20 - Northville Township

Northville Township Population Scenarios 50,000

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical Data 12,987 17,313 21,036 28,497 31,758
County Step Down 31,758 35,673 38,489 42,509 46,646
Steady Numeric Growth (3,261 per decade) 31,758 33,349 35,019 36,613 38,280
Steady Growth Rate (1.1%) 31,758 33,526 35,392 37,362 39,442
Constrained Growth 31,758 33,311 34,597 35,612 36,511
Midpoint 31,758 33,330 34,808 36,113 37,396
SEMCOG 31,758 33,478 35,292 35,784 36,282

The Exponential Growth line, labeled as “Steady Growth Rate” on the Northville Township population projections chart,
is based on the 1.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the Township had from 2010 to 2020. The Exponential
Growth line leads to a 2040 population of 39,442 while the Linear Growth line, labeled as “Steady Numeric Growth” on
the chart, leads to a 2040 population of 38,280. While these projections are not significantly different, the Exponential
Growth scenario outcome is less realistic given the finite amount of remaining developable land within Northville
Township.

Projection Based on Local Share of County-Level Growth

This “step-down” method considers the trend in the Township share of the countywide population in past decades
and prospects for its future share. Based on data from the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG)
regarding the Wayne County population, Northville Township has accounted for between 0.56% and 1.77% of the
County population over the past 40 years. Because Northville Township’s population was growing while Wayne County’s
population was decreasing, the Township’s share of the County population continued to increase each decade – albeit,
still only a small percentage. If this trend continues, Northville Township’s population will represent an even larger share
of the countywide population in the years ahead. However, while Wayne County’s population has decreased for 40 years,
projections for the next 20 years show a slight population increase. Depending on Northville Township’s population
growth, the Township share of the County’s population may begin to level out at some point.
The County Step Down line on the chart shows where Northville Township’s population would be in 2040 (46,646) if the
Township maintained its 2020 share of the Wayne County population (1.77%) through 2040.

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG)

Population projections published by SEMCOG provide another basis for comparison. SEMCOG’s 2040 projection for
Northville Township is 36,282, which is included on the chart.

Constrained Growth Scenario
This final scenario assumes that the Township’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) will gradually slow over the next
20 years as opportunities for new residential development taper off, and with infill and redevelopment activity adding

18 NORTHVILLE TOWNSHIP Master Plan