Page 21 - Northville Township

only marginally to the Township population. The CAGR Assumptions for Constrained Growth
assumptions are shown in the table.
Scenarios
Based on the limited extent of remaining vacant land Compound Annual
and parcels that are currently in the development and Years Growth Rate (CAGR)
planning stages, such as Legacy Park and a site within the
MITC development, further large increases in population 2020-2024 1.0%
are unlikely. Therefore, this scenario assumes a declining 2025-2029 0.8%
CAGR from 1.09% in 2020 to the rates shown above. This
Constrained Growth scenario results in a 2040 population 2030-2034 0.6%
of 36,511. 2035-2040 0.5%
Bottom Line

It is wise for local governments to think in terms of a
range of potential growth rather than an absolute number
given the uncertainty of any small-area forecast that
extends beyond a few years. It is assumed for this Master
Plan that Northville Township’s 2040 population will fall
within a forecast range of 36,511 to 38,280 persons,
which yields a midpoint of 37,396.

As illustrated by the Midpoint projection line on the
scenarios chart, the midpoint of a potential growth range
to assume for this Master Plan – between the lower
Constrained Growth projection and the higher Steady
Growth Rate projection – would put Northville Township’s
population at 33,330 in 2025; 34,808 in 2030; 36,113 in
2035 and 37,396 in 2040. This would mean an additional
5,638 residents from 2020 and implies that Northville
Township could add the equivalent of 17.8% of its 2020
population by 2040.

The newest U.S. Census Bureau estimates for 2020
showed an average household size in Northville Township
of 2.53 persons. Utilizing the average household size and
the projected number of residents by 2040 means that
2,228 additional housing units would be needed by 2040
to accommodate 5,638 added residents.
It is recognized that this extent of further population
growth within the Township may not be viable if:
(a) sufficient developable land is not available, and/
or (b) if more dense housing types than single-family
detached are not likely to be developed at a scale that
could accommodate this amount of population. In
the meantime, these population projections are for
general planning purposes only and do not imply any
endorsement of particular housing types or densities in
the future.

Approved August 17, 2023 19