Page 39 - Grenada County, MS Build Better Together 2040 Plan

Grenada County Build Better Together 2040 Plan

The Exponential Growth line, labeled as “Steady Growth Rate” on the Grenada County population projections
chart, is based on the -0.13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the county had from 2010 to 2020. The
Exponential Growth line leads to a reduced 2040 population of 21,085 while the Linear Growth line, labeled as
“Steady Numeric Growth” on the chart, leads to a 2040 population of 21,075.
Projections Based on Local Share of Statewide Growth

This method considers the trend in county share of the statewide population in past decades and prospects for
the county’s future share. It also draws upon statewide population estimates and projections produced by the
State Data Center of Mississippi. Of note, the population for the State of Mississippi as a whole has been
declining and was one of only three states nationwide to record a decrease in state population in the 2020
Census. The State Data Center projects that this trend of decreasing state‑level population will continue into the
future. In the “Step Down” population projection, Grenada County’s share of the statewide population is held
constant at the 2020 level, resulting in a small population gain in Grenada County by 2040 as the statewide base
continues to decrease.
Grenada County’s share of the State of Mississippi’s population was 0.74% in 2010, when the county had 21,906
residents relative to 2,967,297 in all of Mississippi (including Grenada County). By 2020, Grenada County’s share
had decreased slightly to 0.73% of 2,961,279 persons statewide.

The State Step Down line on the population projections chart shows where Grenada County’s population would
be through 2040 (22,515) if it maintained its 2020 share of the State of Mississippi’s population (0.73%) through
2040.

Projections Based on Assumed Growth Rates

The projections for Grenada County above are based on past population trends. They assume that the county
will continue to lose population. Given recent economic investments and announced job gains in the area, it is
assumed for purposes of the 2040 Plan that Grenada County will not continue this trend of population loss,
but rather will experience population growth in the coming years. How much growth is unknown as it will be a
departure from the recent trend and is dependent on uncertain factors such as how much housing is able to be
built within the county over the next 5-10 years and beyond.
By achieving and sustaining a positive compound annual growth rate (CAGR), Grenada County can establish a
renewed growth trend not seen locally since the 1990s, when the county added 1,708 residents and reached its
highest population count ever at 23,263 persons as of Census 2000. The tables below illustrate various higher
assumed CAGRs (relative to the recent -0.13% rate in Grenada County from 2010 to 2020) as applied in the
Accelerated Growth and Super Accelerated Growth scenarios shown on the population projections chart.

Grenada County, MS 21